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Yes, the latest 2026 COLA increase estimate is a 2.3%, which will be applied to VA disability compensation rates effective December 1, 2025, payable beginning January 1, 2026.
Our latest 2026 COLA prediction is up slightly (.1%) following the March 2025 CPI report, indicating further cooling of inflationary pressures even with tariff concerns potentially impacting the economy.
If inflation continues to slow, the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2026 could be even lower than the current projection of 2.3%.
Table of Contents
What is a Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA)?
A Cost-Of-Living Adjustment (COLA) is calculated automatically each year and is intended to reflect the change in the cost of living over a one-year period.
The primary purpose of a COLA increase is to help consumers maintain their spending power relative to inflation.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which is updated monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the measure used to calculate whether there will be a COLA increase.
The CPI-W is an estimate of the average change in prices of the goods and services purchased by households whose incomes come primarily from clerical or wage occupations.
The BLS measures the price change of each item in a “basket” of goods that the average person purchases, and then it computes overall inflation (weights each of those price changes by the item’s share of spending).
What is the 2026 COLA Increase Based On?
The 2026 Social Security COLA is based on the percentage increase from the highest third quarter average CPI-W recorded from 2024 compared to the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year (3rd quarter 2025).
The percentage increase is rounded to the nearest one-tenth of 1% (0.1%).
If the CPI-W triggers a 2026 VA disability COLA this year, it becomes effective December 1, 2025, and is payable starting January 1, 2026.
In some years; however, the CPI-W does not increase.
In fact, sometimes a decrease has been recorded (e.g., 2010, 2011, and 2016).
In those years, no COLA was payable as required by law, which means the increase was zero.
However, the COLA can never be negative even during times of a decreasing price index.
What is the VA COLA Increase for 2026?
The projected COLA for 2026 is 2.3%, based on the most recent inflation trends.
But remember—this is only a forecast.
The official 2026 COLA won’t be locked in until mid-October 2025, when the Social Security Administration (SSA) reviews inflation data from the third quarter (July–September) of the year.
If inflation continues to cool, the final adjustment could be lower than expected.
If inflation spikes, likely due to tariffs, it could tick up.
For now, veterans can anticipate a 2026 COLA increase somewhere between 2.0% and 2.5%, depending on how inflation trends play out through mid-2025.
Can There Be No COLA Increase?
Yes, there can be no COLA increase.
Since automatic Social Security Benefit COLAs began in 1975, there have been three years where no COLA was payable: 2010, 2011, and 2016.
The Social Security Act specifies that a COLA is payable automatically if the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year is higher than the highest average CPI-W for the third quarter of past years, which is called the “cost-of-living computation quarter.”
If the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year is equal to or less than the average CPI-W for the cost-of-living computation quarter, no COLA is payable.
What Programs Are Impacted by COLA?
Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLA) impact a range of government programs, primarily those that provide income or benefits to individuals.
The aim of COLA is to ensure that the purchasing power of recipients does not erode over time due to inflation.
Here are some key programs impacted by COLA:
- Social Security Benefits: One of the most well-known applications of COLA. Social Security payments are adjusted annually to reflect the cost of living increases.
- Federal Civil Service Pensions: Similar to Social Security, federal pensions often include COLA provisions to protect retirees’ purchasing power.
- Military Retirement Pay: Military retirees receive COLA adjustments to their retirement pay to help keep up with inflation.
- Supplemental Security Income (SSI): SSI benefits, which provide financial assistance to individuals who are disabled, aged, or blind, are also subject to annual COLA increases.
- Veteran Benefits: Various veteran benefits, including disability compensation, pension, and special monthly compensation payments receive annual COLA adjustments.
- Federal and State Minimum Wage: Some jurisdictions automatically adjust their minimum wage levels based on inflation, which is a form of COLA. However, this is not uniform across all states or at the federal level.
- Food Stamps (SNAP Benefits): The maximum benefit amounts and income eligibility thresholds for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) are adjusted annually for inflation.
- Medicare: Parts of Medicare, such as Part B premiums, are sometimes adjusted based on costs, which can be influenced by inflation, although this is not a direct COLA in the same way it is applied to Social Security benefits.
- Railroad Retirement Benefits: Similar to Social Security, these benefits include a COLA.
What VA Benefits Will be Impacted by a 2026 COLA Increase?
These cash benefits will be impacted by the official 2026 COLA for VA disability:
Recent COLAs for VA Disability
- 2021: 1.3%
- 2022: 5.9%
- 2023: 8.7%
- 2024: 3.2%
- 2025: 2.5%
- 2026: 2.3% (projected)
Historical COLA Increases Since 1975
The table below shows historical COLA increases by year along with the COLA percentages since 1975:
| Year | COLA % | Year | COLA % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1975 | 8% | 2001 | 3.5% |
| 1976 | 6.4% | 2002 | 2.6% |
| 1977 | 5.9% | 2003 | 1.4% |
| 1978 | 6.5% | 2004 | 2.1% |
| 1979 | 9.9% | 2005 | 2.7% |
| 1980 | 14.3% | 2006 | 4.1% |
| 1981 | 11.2% | 2007 | 3.3% |
| 1982 | 7.4% | 2008 | 2.3% |
| 1984 | 3.5% | 2009 | 5.8% |
| 1985 | 3.5% | 2010 | 0% |
| 1986 | 3.1% | 2011 | 0% |
| 1987 | 1.3% | 2012 | 3.6% |
| 1988 | 4.2% | 2013 | 1.7% |
| 1989 | 4% | 2014 | 1.5% |
| 1990 | 4.7% | 2015 | 1.7% |
| 1991 | 5.4% | 2016 | 0% |
| 1992 | 3.7% | 2017 | 0.3% |
| 1993 | 3% | 2018 | 2% |
| 1994 | 2.6% | 2019 | 2.8% |
| 1995 | 2.8% | 2020 | 1.6% |
| 1996 | 2.6% | 2021 | 1.3% |
| 1997 | 2.9% | 2022 | 5.9% |
| 1998 | 2.1% | 2023 | 8.7% |
| 1999 | 1.3% | 2024 | 3.2% |
| 2000 | 2.5% | 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2026 | 2.3% (estimate) |
Source: SSA Cost-Of-Living Adjustments since 1975
Conclusion & Wrap-Up
The 2026 COLA for VA disability compensation is currently projected at 2.3%, down slightly from 2025’s official 2.5% increase—and it could dip even further if inflation continues to cool throughout 2025.
That means if you’re a veteran receiving VA disability compensation, Special Monthly Compensation, VA pension, or DIC benefits, your monthly payment will see a modest increase starting January 1, 2026 (effective December 1, 2025).
But let’s be honest…
These COLA increases often fail to keep up with the real cost of living, especially when prices for food, housing, and medical care continue to rise at faster rates.
That’s why it’s absolutely critical that you stay informed, prepare ahead, and maximize every dollar you’ve earned.
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About the Author
Brian Reese
Brian Reese is a world-renowned VA disability benefits expert and the #1 bestselling author of VA Claim Secrets and You Deserve It. Motivated by his own frustration with the VA claim process, Brian founded VA Claims Insider to help disabled veterans secure their VA disability compensation faster, regardless of their past struggles with the VA. Since 2013, he has positively impacted the lives of over 10 million military, veterans, and their families.
A former active-duty Air Force officer, Brian has extensive experience leading diverse teams in challenging international environments, including a combat tour in Afghanistan in 2011 supporting Operation ENDURING FREEDOM.
Brian is a Distinguished Graduate of Management from the United States Air Force Academy and earned his MBA from Oklahoma State University’s Spears School of Business, where he was a National Honor Scholar, ranking in the top 1% of his class.
